In 10-20 years Louisiana’s economy will collapse if it does not diversify. Worse still, the cause of this impending future will have global reaching effects.

On 7/11/18, Joe Wheeler, Executive Director of the Houma-Terrebonne Airport Commission, stood before the Terrebonne City Council to seek the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding to assist with grant funding.

The goal is to move forward in testing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, or drones, so that parts and eventually people can be flown to oil rigs in the Gulf. Much of the research of drones is being done at North Dakota University. Wheeler is looking to take these pre-tested drones and put them into service. The Houma airport was chosen for safety reasons because large swaths of southern Louisiana are marsh, uninhabited by people, which creates a safer environment if an aircraft were to fail.

During his presentation, Wheeler, said Nabors Drilling already has a fully autonomous rig in the North Sea. Because of this, Wheeler predicts that by 2025 the oilfield will be autonomized. (For those interested in the plans of the drones: 2018 remotely piloted, 2019 optionally piloted, 2020/2021 semi-autonomous aircraft, and 2022 fully autonomous [highly autonomous]).

Bear in mind, this is a prediction by one man making a sales pitch. While this is likely exaggerated, the hourglass has been set. The oilfield will become autonomous, and Marx’s prediction of technology replacing human labor will be fulfilled in this sector. While it is fair to assume that not all will be replaced – obviously some will be required for maintenance and supervision – the scope of the industry will vastly alter.

Real wealth manifests itself, rather – and large industry reveals this – in the monstrous disproportion between the labour time applied, and its product, as well as in the qualitative imbalance between labour, reduced to a pure abstraction, and the power of the production process it superintends. Labour no longer appears so much to be included within the production process; rather, the human being comes to relate more as watchman and regulator to the production process itself…He steps to the side of the production process instead of being its chief actor. In this transformation, it is neither the direct human labour he himself performs, nor the time during which he works, but rather the appropriation of his own general productive power, his understanding of nature and his mastery over it by virtue of his presence as a social body – it is, in a word, the development of the social individual which appears as the great foundation-stone of production and of wealth. – The Fragment on Machines, by Karl Marx: page 7-8

This has startling implications. The oilfield has been a place for the working class, both higher educated and not, to flock and reach substantial incomes (not only is the pay impressive, $45.75 average pay across all occupations in November of 2018, but room and board are provided while offshore, reducing the cost of living for a portion of one’s year). This will further widen, and deepen, the already impressive fissure that is the wealth gap. Just as america has witnessed the sentiments expressed in the 2016 election, with former and active coal miners outraged by the crushing effects of technology taking their livelihoods, Louisiana and oilfield communities elsewhere will soon suffer.

Currently, oil is essential to military power. This means those who have influence on the availability of oil hold sway over governmental decisions. While the working class is necessary for the harvesting of this product, their approval is necessary in leadership. Shifting dependence from that segment of the population to technology means also consolidating the political influence into the hands of those who control that technology.

When a majority of the population in a democracy feels a lack of control on their destinies they look to candidates who exhibit authoritarian qualities: demagogues often step in to fill this vacancy. These individuals often appeal to a population’s baser emotions.

Take for instance Aristotle’s observation of a demagogue:

After the death of Pericles, Nicias, who died in Sicily, was the leader of the upper classes, while Cleon the son of Cleainetus led the people. The latter appears to have corrupted the people more than anyone else by his violence; he was the first to shout when addressing the people, he used abusive language, and addressed the Ekklesia with his garments tucked up when it was customary to speak properly dressed. – Aristotle and Xenophon on Democracy and Oligarchy, page 171: XXVIII, 3-4

Aristotle continues to list a few more noteworthy individuals, then summarizes what’s left, “…there was an unbroken series of demagogues whose main aim was to be outrageous and please the people with no thought for anything but the present.”

When a populace has an uncertain or threatening future the mass conscious tends to focus on immediate gratification or solution. This can be useful when facing a threat such as war, when decisions must be made for survival purposes; however, this is not healthy for the society long term.

This could change, with the advent of some new energy source, but I don’t expect it to do so in such a short period of time. One possibility would be a breakthrough in battery technology which would suddenly unlock the potential of “green” energy. This would at least create a demand for workers, and open a new job market.